Energy Transition
In Trump’s victory speech after the presidential election, he discussed the vast oil and natural gas reserves in the US. According to Trump’s campaign, his goal during his second term will be to boost fossil-fuel production and roll back green regulations that currently hinder oil and gas drilling and coal mining, all in a bid to lower energy prices. All of this is happening in the midst of what will be the hottest year on record. With growing public advocacy, active climate groups, and more stakeholders engaging on social media, companies can no longer overlook the push for energy transition and the increasing demand for renewable fuels.
According to NPR, “A second Trump administration will not be able to stop the country’s transition to cleaner sources of energy, analysts and activists say. Costs for a lot of those technologies are falling fast. Companies are under pressure from their customers and investors to deal with climate change. And states led by Democrats and Republicans alike are reaping economic benefits from new factories and power plants that have received government support.”
“There is no denying that another Trump presidency will stall national efforts to tackle the climate crisis and protect the environment, but most U.S. state, local, and private sector leaders are committed to charging ahead,” Dan Lashof, U.S. director of the World Resources Institute, said in a statement. “And you can count on a chorus of world leaders confirming that they won’t turn their back on climate and nature goals.”
BBC reported: “With energy watchdog the International Energy Agency reporting that global investment in clean technology is running at double the size of coal, oil and gas in 2024, the new U.S. administration might not want to drive this type of green investment into other, more eager countries.”
Environmental Protections and Climate Efforts
Based on his first term, it is likely that Trump will again try to reduce the size of the Environmental Protection Agency. During his first term, he included in a budget proposal a 31 percent cut to EPA’s funding, as well as a cap on the number of employees at 11,611. While this ultimately was not approved by Congress, he repeatedly campaigned on his desire to dismantle federal agencies, as well as his desire to reissue an executive order that reclassifies some career government workers to make it easier to fire them. Both proposals, if enacted, could affect the EPA’s staffing and its ability to complete work.
Trump is also expected to end the pause on permitting new liquefied natural gas exports to big markets in Asia and Europe and revoke a waiver that allows California and other states to have tighter pollution standards, according to a report published in Reuters.
Trump’s pick for head of the EPA, Lee Zeldin, told Fox News that he will pull back “left-wing” regulations and focus on “unleashing economic prosperity” through the agency, according to CNN news.
There are also expectations for change on how the U.S. will engage with global efforts to fight climate change under the Trump administration. In his first term, he pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement, which requires countries to pledge how much they will cut back on pollution leading to climate warming. Nearly all countries, 195 in total, are part of the agreement which went into force in 2016. Based on comments from his campaign in June and his actions during his first term, it is expected he will pull the U.S. out of the Agreement again, and it may even be one of the first things he does in office.
With COP29 having just ended in Azerbaijan, some view the election results as a significant setback. This comes at a critical time, as discussions on climate funding are ongoing, with the aim of raising funds for developing countries that are most impacted. While they did come to an agreement on a $300 billion fund for these most affected countries, having a key player such as the US not invested could impact future commitments.
In addition, an International Chamber of Commerce recently released report estimated that between 2014 and 2023, climate-related extreme weather events caused approximately $2 trillion in damage worldwide. This economic impact is comparable to the financial losses experienced during the 2008 global financial crisis. This further emphasizes the urgent need for decisive action on climate change, highlighting the costly consequences of inaction.
Finally, progress at the state-level has moved forward, and likely will continue to do so regardless of who holds the White House. For example, California has advanced its climate disclosure agenda with Senate Bill (SB) 261. This law requires companies doing business in California with revenues above $500 million to disclose greenhouse gas emissions and climate risks, with the first climate-related risk disclosures to be published by January 1, 2026.
Meanwhile, several other states, including Illinois, New York, and Washington, have proposed similar laws. As the SEC's climate disclosure rule remains under legal review, state-level regulations, like California’s, have become the primary compliance focus for U.S. companies, particularly those also subject to international frameworks such as the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD). These changes underline the need for businesses to prepare for stringent and overlapping reporting obligations, regardless of what the White House does or doesn’t do.
Health and Safety in the Workplace
As we think about workplace impacts under the new Trump administration, proposed mass deportations could have substantial impacts on labor and workplaces, particularly in manufacturing facilities.
We could also see a rollback of LGBTQ rights and discrimination policies impacting workers’ rights. Trump has called for rolling back DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) programs in government institutions.
With workplace violence on the rise, there is a concern around gun-safety policies which could be revoked, or we may see an effort to roll back background checks. There could also be rollbacks of OSHA standards, inspections, or penalties for workplace safety violations in an effort to make it less burdensome for businesses to operate.
Supply Chain Impacts
The new administration has also discussed heavy tariffs on major imports from outside the US, including solar and electric vehicles from China, further complicating the environmental landscape.
While this could provide a boost to domestic manufacturing of electric vehicles and clean energy components, in the short term it means the least expensive alternative technologies in the world (from China) will be more expensive and could discourage and delay adoption.
This is already having a ripple effect on imports with retailers and manufacturers who are trying to “front load” imports knowing these taxations may be coming. According to Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, in the short-term there will be a surge in import demand for containerized goods as U.S. companies stock up ahead of any new tariffs. “Especially related to goods which are not time sensitive”, said Jensen, from CNBC article on the impact in the supply chain.
Three Tips for Preparing for and Navigating the Change in Administrations
While many potential changes are on the horizon, there are some things organizations can do to prepare for it all. Consider the following tips:
1. Track Multiple Jurisdictional Levels
- Monitor state-level regulations, which may become more important if federal oversight decreases (such as California's Climate Laws).
- Track local requirements that could become more stringent to counter federal rollbacks.
- Pay attention to international standards affecting global operations/supply chains (such as the EU's CSRD).
2. Focus on Business-Driven Environmental & Safety Programs
- Tie EHS and sustainability initiatives to business value rather than just regulatory compliance.
- Consider consumer demands, investor expectations, and supply chain requirements which may press for action despite changes in regulations and standards.
- Remember that many companies have maintained active EHS and sustainability programs during previous deregulation due to stakeholder pressure and simple business value.
3. Strengthen Stakeholder Management
- Maintain strong relationships with regulators at all levels.
- Engage with industry groups to stay informed of sector-wide responses.
Looking Forward
Most companies have already embraced climate action as a core part of their strategy, recognizing both the environmental and economic benefits of sustainable practices. Across industries, businesses are setting ambitious goals, investing in renewable energy, and adopting eco-friendly technologies, regardless of government mandates.
This momentum reflects a strong commitment to addressing climate change that goes beyond political shifts. Many companies understand that sustainability isn't just a trend—it's an essential investment in a resilient future, as evidenced by the 9,000+ companies committed to the Science-Based Targets Initiative, representing nearly 50 sectors including one-fifth of the Global Fortune 500. So, while the presidential office may change, the dedication to building a greener, more sustainable world is here to stay.
We will continue to monitor the landscape as we move closer to the new administration and prepare our clients for changes to come.
